Spot the Spin: Correlation Is Not Causation

Politicians are quick to claim credit when jobs are created, investment increases, or the economy appears to improve. But did their policy actually cause the result, or did the two things simply happen at the same time? In this week’s Spot the Spin, Chris examines the difference between causation and correlation using Toyota’s $3.6 billion San Antonio expansion and the claim that tariffs made it happen. Before accepting a political victory lap, ask three questions: 1. Did the supposed cause happen before the outcome? 2. Is there evidence explaining how one produced the other? 3. Could another factor better explain what happened? Timing is not proof. Taking credit is not evidence. And correlation is not causation.